Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Will we see 120s for the GBPJPY?

Over the past few weeks I've been looking at the monthly chart of the GBPJPY and keep seeing how close we are to a 20+ years low for the pair.  January 1995 is when the pair made its lows of 129.32, what are the odds than in January 2009 we see the pair at the same or even lower levels? I think pretty good.  

The current monthly support level is standing at 134.94, the weekly is at around 137.80.  Over the past few weeks the GBPJPY has had several lows and bounced back from such lows as 138.99, 138.87, 137.65, the lowest of which came in today at 136.27.  Will this be the new low and a start of a major retracement upwards?  Or will the momentum pick up and the drop keep going to the lows of 1995?

From what we've seen from the charts, I think we are headed for new lows, that is why I am placing a sell at the 136 levels for the GBPJPY.

What are your thoughts?


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2 comments:

  1. traderjclDecember 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM

    [FROM: jkapf] yes.. that can also happen. I'm curious how far the guppy will fall.

    [FROM: jordan] I am too. Depends on what happend over there in the UK i suppose. I suppose it can easily go well below 100

    [FROM: jkapf] with another possible cut of interest rates in the UK, the pound won't gain strength for sure.... below 100. I don't know. It would also mean GBP getting closer to USD. (Parity maybe?)

    [FROM: jordan] what is the most diffcult to undertand is the amazing strength of the dollar.


    [FROM: jkapf] the strength of USD doesn't surprise me so much.

    [FROM: jkapf] Euro zone is in recession too, Britain probably worse affected than mainland Europe.

    [FROM: jordan] i have been thinking it was because of the HUGE sell off of the equiy markets (down over 40% in a couple of months) that money be taken out of equities needs to go somewhere, maybe it has been going into the $?

    ReplyDelete
  2. IICE74December 3, 2008 at 12:12 PM

    I've been thinking about the sell off in the equity markets and I remember reading that most that sell their stocks throw it into treasuries which is turn give strength to the USD.

    ReplyDelete

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