Thursday, April 30, 2009

Range or Trend?

I'm looking at the AUDUSD Daily and Weekly charts this morning and see an obvious but very strong resistance level at the .7330 levels.  Just like with any resistance levels the big question is always: are we going to break it or are we going to bounce back? 

On the daily chart the resistance line is very clear and show a few very close previous touches:
On 10/14/08 we reached .7236.
On 01/06/09 we reached .7265.
On 01/07/09 we reached .7267.
And finally since 02/04/09 we've been flirting with the highs and stayed in a range between .6972 and .7382.

The weekly chart shows a very nice pattern of 1 2 3 4 reversal.
The 1 level being at .6006.
The 2 level being at .7267.
The 3 level being at .6246.
The rule of th2 1 2 3 4 reversal technique is that if level 3 goes lower than level 1 and then turns around and goes higher than level 2 (point 4) then we are ready for a new trend in that direction, in the case of the AUDUSD chart, we are ready to go up.

If we do cross the resitence level and look to the left on the chart from where we are today, the pair is in the clear to move all the way to .8200 with no problems, there is really no noise in between here and there!




 

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